![]() (It also looks like it’s easier to forecast the weather in the summer. I check other months and see that isn’t always the case. That in January 2017, forecasts about weather in the south of the US were less accurate than those in the west of the country.And my self-esteem would probably be low. #National weather service digital atmosphere plus#The mean error of my predictions would be five plus nine, divided by two: my MAE would be seven. Then in 2016, I expected nine gifts and received none (wrong, by nine). Quick example: let’s say in 2015, I expected three gifts on my birthday and got eight (I was off by five). It’s just the average of all mistakes, so it’s a pretty good way to measure how close predictions are to the final results. MAE: That makes sense now too – that stands for Mean Absolute Error.So each point on the chart is about the accuracy of the forecast 24 hours in advance, 48 hours in advance, etc, all the way down to forecasts that are one week ahead of time. The x-axis goes from 12 to 168, I presume because there are 168 hours in a week. 168: OK, well, not really a definition but I’m starting to piece things together now.You might be more familiar with the term Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) in practical terms, they’re the same thing. 00Z Reference time: I’m pretty surprised to learn that weather forecasting uses Zulu time.Tmax: Temperature max, the high point of the day.I see, that means that the weather forecasts I’m looking at are for the 48 contiguous states (they exclude Alaska and Hawaii, and US overseas territories). I try to find out what I’m looking at by deciphering each term, one internet search at a time. They make absolutely no sense to me – what’s Tmax? CONUS? And my first thought when I read MAE is to imagine a woman. The only thing I can really do is click in the top left-hand corner of the page to choose a month. So I go straight to a site mentioned in the article: the National Digital Forecast Database. As ever, though, I’m not really looking for commentary I’m searching for the original numbers on which that analysis is based. So I search for “how accurate is weather forecasting?” and end up at this link. I want to understand whether the NWS has a habit of getting these things wrong. ![]() Step 2: Find out whether this was a one-off. Two hours and 75 tabs later, I realize that if the government could control the weather, the National Weather Service (NWS) might not get their forecasts wrong. Temperatures in the mid-60s Friday will dip back into the mid-50s for Saturday.They base this claim on the activities of the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (Haarp) in Alaska, as well as a US patent titled “Method and Apparatus for Altering a Region in the Earth’s Atmosphere, Ionosphere, and/or Magnetosphere”. Temperatures are expected in the mid-upper 50s.Ĭlear weather will stay in the area through Sunday when the next chance of rain is expected. "That's where the greatest severe threat is going to be moving forward this afternoon." Forecast for the rest of the weekĪfter the rain clears early Thursday morning, high winds are forecast to stay in the area with gusts up to 30-40 miles per hour. "We are seeing some clearing down there," Erwin said. Places like Carbondale and Marion were at "moderate risk" for severe storms. When the NWS updated projections in the early afternoon, the storms had shifted southward, with an "enhanced risk" for areas south of I-70. More: Here's what's open and closed on Good Friday "Ultimately, that instability is needed for there to be strong to severe thunderstorms." "That's preventing the atmosphere from becoming unstable, receiving heat from the sun during the day that creates that instability," Erwin said. Weather in Illinois: "Enhanced" risk for severe weather for central Illinois Wednesday afternoon ![]() Why has the threat declined?Īlex Erwin, a meteorologist with the NWS, said that due to high cloud cover in the area and widespread showers through the area, the threat of a significant, damaging storm has dissipated. The threat of tornadoes has been significantly lowered, with the highest risk for a dangerous twister coming along I-70 south of Effingham. The NWS forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms throughout the area, with a threat of damaging wind up to and hail in some places. The National Weather Service in Lincoln has put much of the area east of Interstate 72 along the Illinois River valley under "slight risk" of severe storms Wednesday afternoon, a downgrade from initial predictions. ![]() The threat of severe weather for much of central Illinois has been lowered Wednesday afternoon, as the more significant storms are likely to hit south of Interstate 70. ![]()
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